AGP Executive Report

Energy Shock: Brent crude topped $114 a barrel and European gas prices climbed sharply as attacks on shipping and fears of renewed US-Iran conflict threatened supplies. The IEA chief warned that energy-market buffers are running low. Winter Security: Britain secured gas-import capacity from Belgium, preserving a key supply route. The grid operator expects enough gas and power this winter, but prices are high and supply remains exposed to disruption. Policy: The European Parliament backed a three-year delay to methane rules for oil, gas and coal imports, pushing key reporting deadlines to 2031. North Sea: The UK approved the Jackdaw gas field, saying it will strengthen energy security; the project will not ease this winter’s supply pressures. Climate: A new study estimates Europe’s summer heat caused more than 50,000 deaths, with climate change responsible for about two-thirds.

Energy Prices: Oil climbed above $112 a barrel as Middle East attacks stoked supply fears, while European gas prices hovered near four-year highs, raising pressure on household and industry bills. UK Gas Supply: Britain approved the controversial Jackdaw North Sea field, with gas potentially arriving this winter, while also booking more pipeline capacity from Europe ahead of winter. EU Policy: Parliament backed a three-year delay to methane rules, even as an EU legal adviser said the bloc’s energy windfall levy is lawful. Storage and Renewables: Germany added 8.2 GWh of battery capacity in the first nine months of 2026, and Engie began building a solar-and-battery project in France. Fuel Disruption: Diesel costs have driven trucker blockades in southern Italy, leaving some pumps empty and halting buffalo mozzarella production.

Oil and Gas Shock: Brent climbed above $110 a barrel after Houthi attacks hit Saudi targets, including an attempted drone strike on the Shaybah oil field. The disruption is fuelling concern over supply and higher energy costs for Europe. Energy Bills: The EU’s top court upheld the legality of Spain and Portugal’s 2022 “Iberian cap,” rejecting energy companies’ challenge to the crisis measure that helped curb electricity prices. Industrial Efficiency: KBR will upgrade ammonia plants in Germany and Austria to cut natural-gas use, improve efficiency and reduce emissions as high gas prices squeeze European fertiliser makers. North Sea Supply: The UK approved drilling at the Jackdaw gas field, saying its output will serve domestic demand; the decision has revived debate over energy security and climate commitments. Clean Power: Engie has begun building its first French solar-and-battery project, pairing 29.8 MW of solar capacity with storage to shift power to periods of stronger demand.

Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure: Russia has launched about 60 strikes on Ukrainian energy and oil-and-gas facilities in three days, damaging supplies as the country prepares for winter. Ukrainian energy firms are urging partners to speed up aid, especially air defence. North Sea Gas: The UK has approved Jackdaw, with production expected to start by the end of October and peak output forecast to lift domestic gas production by around 6%. The government says the project will support energy security, though it is unlikely to significantly lower household bills; climate campaigners oppose the decision. Winter Supply: Macron says France secured Qatari LNG equivalent to 2 terawatt-hours a month for winter, alongside additional diesel from Gulf states, as fuel costs fuel social unrest. Europe’s gas prices have climbed to 2022 crisis levels, while storage remains below its historical average.

North Sea Gas: The UK has approved drilling at Jackdaw, which could lift domestic gas production by about 6% at its peak and begin supplying homes this month. The government says it will bolster energy security and jobs, but the project is unlikely to noticeably cut household bills. Power Prices: Spain’s evening wholesale electricity prices are forecast to approach €300/MWh as fading solar output increases reliance on costly gas. EU Energy Union: Ursula von der Leyen has called for a plan to link grids, strengthen interconnectors and coordinate energy purchasing, arguing that fragmented markets leave Europe exposed to imported-fuel shocks. Fuel Security: France has secured additional diesel supply pledges from Gulf states as high fuel costs add to pressure on households. Electric Vehicles: Battery-electric registrations across 17 European markets jumped 70.3% in September year on year, reaching 32.6% of new-car sales.

Oil and Gas Shock: Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel to a five-month high as Houthi attacks and the Iran conflict heightened supply fears. European gas prices topped €90/MWh for the first time since 2022, while LNG prices also surged. Arctic Security: The EU’s new strategy puts security and resilient infrastructure at the forefront, proposing expanded icebreaker capacity and stronger monitoring of shipping, undersea cables and energy links. North Sea Supply: The UK government is expected to approve the controversial Jackdaw gas field, a move that could add domestic supply as energy costs rise. Nuclear Power: Slovakia’s fourth Mochovce reactor has begun supplying the grid; at full capacity, it is expected to cover about 13% of the country’s electricity use. Industry Costs: Visegrad countries are pressing the EU for more flexible support to shield industry from high energy prices and give nuclear power equal footing with renewables. French Fuel: Macron secured Gulf pledges for additional diesel supplies as soaring fuel costs add to pressure on households and businesses.

Energy Costs: Brent climbed above $110 a barrel as Middle East risks rattled markets, while European gas storage hit a 13-year low. EU leaders are weighing relief for households and industry, but disagree over loosening fiscal rules and taxing energy windfalls. Fuel Supplies: France says Macron’s Gulf tour secured an extra 200,000 tonnes of diesel a month from the UAE and Bahrain. The European Commission also rejected a US proposal to resume Russian gas purchases. Clean Energy and Industry: The Commission selected 77 net-zero technology projects for €3.4 billion in support. Poland eased grid-connection rules for small home batteries, while Korea and Czechia confirmed the Dukovany nuclear project remains on track. Security of Supply: A reported drone strike sparked a fire at a Russian pumping station on the Druzhba pipeline route; Russian officials had not confirmed the incident. In Libya, Eni and the national oil company began start-up procedures at a gas project expected to supply domestic power plants and potentially send gas to Europe.

Fuel Supply: Macron began a Gulf tour to secure oil and diesel as high fuel costs fuel unrest in France. Brent topped $110 a barrel, its highest since May, while EU gas rose to €88.50/MWh. Russian Gas: The European Commission ruled out resuming imports from Russia, rejecting a reported US proposal tied to a possible Ukraine peace deal. Grid Security: Russian attacks damaged 28 Ukrainian substations and other energy sites; repairs are underway as the country prepares for winter. Industrial Costs: Visegrad countries urged the EU to let them use more funding to shield industry from high energy and carbon costs. Offshore Wind: Poland’s 1.2GW Baltic Power project has installed all 76 turbines and is moving towards commercial operation.

Energy Shock: Qatar warned that the fallout from the Iran war has yet to peak, citing risks to oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to its Ras Laffan energy complex. European Supply: EU leaders are pressing for action on soaring energy prices as gas storage sits at a seasonal low; Russian LNG imports to the bloc rose 60% in a month. Energy Security: Russian strikes hit power infrastructure in Kyiv, prompting Poland to scramble military aircraft near the Ukrainian border. Storage and Solar: France plans to let solar-plus-battery projects reach 25 MW if grid exports stay capped at 17 MW, while developers are scouting Italian sites for high-density hydro storage.

Fuel-price Shock: Emmanuel Macron linked France’s rising fuel costs to the Persian Gulf conflict, saying France was suffering the effects despite not joining the war. Paris is seeking additional fuel supplies as living-cost anger spills onto the streets. EU Energy Costs: EU leaders ended their Brussels summit without agreement on a long-term budget, while high energy bills sharpened divisions over how to support households and industry. Gas Security: European gas prices are nearing 2022 highs as restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz tighten supply; storage is 74% full. Meanwhile, EU spending on Russian LNG imports has risen, complicating the bloc’s pledge to phase out Russian gas. Supply Risks: Ukraine’s drone strikes hit oil sites near St Petersburg, adding fresh uncertainty to energy markets already strained by conflict and costly shipping.

Oil Infrastructure: Ukrainian drones struck St Petersburg’s oil terminal and depot overnight, triggering fires and power cuts affecting about 20,000 people. The attack underscores the growing vulnerability of Russian export infrastructure as Kyiv resumes strikes. EU Energy Costs: Leaders left their Brussels summit without agreement on major relief measures, divided over carbon pricing and how to shield households and industry from high bills. Russian Energy Trade: Washington eased restrictions on Russian oil buyers, drawing concern in Europe even as EU spending on Russian LNG imports rose 9.5%, despite the bloc’s pledge to phase them out. Winter Security: Russia launched fresh attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, adding pressure on European governments to help protect critical systems and prepare for winter.

Oil Shock: Brent hit $110 a barrel as attacks near the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply fears. EU leaders sought coordinated relief as diesel prices surged, but left wider budget questions unresolved. Russian Gas: EU imports of Russian LNG rose 9.5% in January–September to 12.18 million tonnes, worth €7.88 billion; about three-quarters arrived at French ports, despite the bloc’s plan to end Russian gas purchases. Ukraine’s Energy Security: Russia launched large-scale strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter, with Kyiv reporting attacks on more than 15 sites. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed the EU for more support. Russian Oil: Washington’s easing of Russian oil curbs has raised concern in Brussels about Moscow’s energy revenues; Russia says its first Arctic oil tanker has departed for world markets.

Energy Costs: EU leaders urged coordinated, temporary relief as diesel prices doubled and gas rose 140% since the Iran war began. Italy also secured EU approval for measures to curb the impact of gas prices on electricity bills, while the Brussels summit exposed divisions over carbon pricing and climate rules. Oil and Sanctions: Brent climbed to $110 a barrel amid attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump’s waiver of new Russia sanctions drew European criticism, as the EU pledged to further cut Moscow’s energy revenues. Gas Security: European gas prices neared 2022 peaks, with storage at a seasonal low and injections slowing. Britain’s reliance on European storage has renewed fears of winter supply shortages. Ukraine’s Energy System: Russian strikes on power infrastructure are raising winter risks; Ukraine says its gas reserves are at a six-year high. EU leaders called for faster investment in grids, renewables and storage to improve energy security.

EU Energy Costs: Leaders ended their Brussels summit without a budget deal but backed temporary state aid, joint energy purchasing and a one-year delay to some methane rules. Ursula von der Leyen said fossil-fuel imports had cost the bloc an extra $119 billion, while 80 GW of renewable capacity is waiting to connect to the grid. Supply Risks: European gas prices are near 2022 highs as Middle East tensions threaten supply and EU storage sits at a seasonal low; the bloc may need to cut winter gas demand by 7%. Brent crude topped $110 a barrel, and the IEA is speeding up emergency stock releases, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. Ukraine’s Winter: Russian strikes on energy infrastructure risk leaving millions without power, heat and water, raising fears of renewed displacement. Power Security: Britain’s blackout risk has risen as it seeks emergency electricity from France, renewing concerns over tight winter supplies.

Winter Security: Brussels is weighing pan-European strategic gas reserves after storage levels fell to record lows, while Lithuania urged coordinated gas buying and temporary support for consumers and businesses. Energy Costs: EU leaders called for a coordinated response to soaring prices, including voluntary joint purchasing and stronger refinery capacity, but left concrete measures unresolved amid divisions over carbon-market rules. Russian Gas: Despite plans to phase out Russian fossil fuels, EU imports of Russian LNG rose 60% in September from August, reaching €615 million, according to CREA. Ukraine: Volodymyr Zelenskyy told EU leaders that winter support must cover energy, air defence and financing as Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure continue.

EU Energy Talks: Leaders left their Brussels summit without conclusions on energy, as high prices and competitiveness dominated discussions. The European Commission is expected to propose short-term relief, while a new long-term budget deal also remains uncertain. Ukraine War: Kyiv resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries after Russia continued attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, ending the brief energy truce urged by Donald Trump. Methane Rules: Brussels proposed delaying fossil-fuel import requirements by a year, citing supply concerns during the energy crisis; compliance would start in 2028 instead of 2027. Winter Security: Britain’s Rough gas storage site faces possible closure, prompting Unite to warn that the country has only 12 days of gas reserves and urge ministers to consider public ownership. Oil Supplies: The IEA agreed to accelerate the release of remaining emergency stocks, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel, amid tight markets and elevated energy costs.